March cotton yarn imports may increase 9% m-o-m to 174kt CHEAP POLYESTER FIBER

1. Imported cotton yarn arrivals to China assessment

With VAT cut from Apr 1, customs clearance of most cargos arriving after Mar 25 was postponed to Apr. Without considering the delayed clearance, arrivals of imported cotton yarn are predicted at 174kt, up 9% on the year and 50% on the month.

2. Traders' reflection

Note: Over 30 enterprises are surveyed, covering 50% of cotton yarn imports.

Major traders and L/C issuing companies reflected higher arrivals of imported cotton yarn.

3. Mar arrivals of imported cotton yarn assessment

According to overseas shipments in Feb, arrivals of imported cotton yarn in Mar will be large. The major origins are predicted to be Vietnam (65kt), India (43.5kt), Pakistan (31kt), Indonesia (8kt), Uzbekistan (10kt) and Taiwan (8.2kt). Those from other regions and countries are assessed at 8.3kt. With expectation of peak season in spring, arrivals in Mar and Apr will be at a large amount and those from major import origins increase much.

Considering delayed customs clearance, the cotton yarn imports from Vietnam is assessed at 89mt, India 39kg, Pakistan 28, Uzbekistan 9kg, Indonesia 7kt, Taiwan 7kt and other regions and countries 7kt.

4. Imported yarn stocks in Mar and supply and demand outlook in Apr

From the second half of Mar, spot imported cotton yarn sales moved slowly on the whole. Affected by VAT reduction, stocks of traders kept rising. The stocks in ports are estimated at 92.8kt, with 37kt in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, 35.9kt in Guangdong and 11.2kt in North China.

Arrivals in Apr are expected to be more than that in Mar. The supply will be adequate in Apr. With low cost and VAT reduction, the profits may reach 500-1000yuan/mt. The pressure from payment on traders may come in May. If the market does not improve obviously, the price will weaken and those with good profits may take the lead. Forward imported cotton yarn price will increase as well as the ordering cost, which may lend support to spot one.