USDA adjusts 2023/24 global cotton production downward

In the global cotton supply and demand balance sheet released by the USDA in November, the most notable adjustment for the 2023/24 season was a reduction of 140,000 tons in global production compared to the previous month. In other data, beginning stocks were reduced by 40,000 tons, imports increased by 10,000 tons, exports decreased by 30,000 tons, and ending stocks were lowered by 130,000 tons. Specifically, the downward adjustment in global production for 2023/24 was mainly due to a reduction of 90,000 tons in India's production. According to the data, the USDA referenced the Indian production figure of 5.53 million tons from the September CAI balance sheet; however, the CAI had previously increased its estimate for Indian production. Therefore, the USDA's estimates for Indian production in the past few months may have had a degree of subjectivity. This adjustment leads to a decline in ending stocks, which also implies a decrease in beginning stocks for 2024/25, which may provide some support for ICE cotton.