How to decide the bottom of nylon market after crude oil plummeted

After the collapse of oil prices, as a small branch downstream of energy-saving products, nylon industry chain is bound to be implicated. Historically speaking, the trend of CPL has a strong correlation with the trend of oil prices.

Before 2012, because CPL was in short supply in general, the trend of oil prices was almost decisive for CPL. But from 2012 to 2014, as CPL market entered into a capacity expansion period, the influence of supply and demand increased, and its correlation with oil prices declined. From 2015 to 2018, both oil prices and domestic supply-side structural reforms were the driving forces. Since 2019, a new round of expansion of CPL and chip, against weak demand, made the development of the two more different.

From a long-term perspective, the decline in oil prices is undoubtedly a major negative influence on the CPL market. In the past 20 years, CPL has twice touched and dropped below the 10,000yuan/mt in early 2009 and early 2016, both of which are highly related to oil prices.

However, the price of oil does not completely determine the price trend of CPL. As mentioned earlier, the price of CPL is formed by the different supply and demand structure and the price spread with benzene.