How is PET supply trend around China Lunar New Year holiday

Before the Spring Festival, PET bottle chip shut capacity includes China Resources Changzhou 600000 tons, China Resources Zhuhai 500000 tons and Dragon Special Resin 250000 tons. Units that turned to produce other products include Wankai 250000 tons and Petrochemical Liaoyang 100000 tons. Therefore, it theoretically affects the monthly output of about 200000 tons, and Jan may keep destocking. After the Spring Festival holiday, Chongqing Wankai Phase II 600000 tons line is expected to affect market supply, meanwhile Dragon Special Resin and China Resources Changzhou plants will also resume one after another. In this way, there will be a significant rebound in monthly production from February to March. PET stock may modestly pile up in February. Of course, as most of the PET bottle chip factories have fulfilled their sales target in the first quarter, order is not a big problem, and the recovery of capacity has a limited impact on the market supply. Therefore, considering the relatively concentrated delivery of domestic and foreign orders in March, the probability of destocking at the end of March may also be high. Since April, Yisheng Dalian and Far Eastern Shanghai all have maintenance plans, so the market supply at the beginning of the second quarter may tighten, which is worthy of market attention. Of course, it also depends on the actual implementation at that time.