Expectation toward supply increase fails

The saying that CPL supply will increase in Aug has been through the entire second quarter of 2021. Plant restart from turnaround, expansion from debottleneck, and newly added projects had all been planned in Aug, indicating a strong bearish outlook. However, these expectations did not come true until the end of the month, when CPL plant operating rate lingered low at 72%, and no new capacities including any successful debottleneck. Inner Mongolia Kingho, started in July, was the only new supplier in the second half of the year, and it had just meet the urgent need in East China and North China.

Previously expected schedules include Domging Risun (Shandong), Yangmei, and Jiangsu Haili restarted, and there will be a total of 740kt/year of incremental production capacity, and Hualu Hengsheng, Lunan Chemical will bring together another 600kt/year. A total of 1.34 million tons/year of CPL capacity had been expected to put into operation during late Aug until early Sep. However, none of them are fulfilled.