Analysis on polyester yarn trend after Spring Festival holiday polyester yarn manufacture

Polyester yarn saw hot sales before Spring Festival holiday. With eased China-US trade war in Dec, downstream plants and traders increased procurement and the haze on the market was swept away at once. However, the short-term prosperity caused concerns from both PSF plants and polyester yarn mills. For PSF plants, they suffered supply shortage for a period, which was the result of soaring demand, but whether the demand can last long perplexed PSF plants. On the other hand, polyester yarn mills also faced the same issue. Coupled with the favor from eased China-US trade war, sales of polyester yarn surged, which also affected PSF, so polyester yarn mills also concerned about the continuity of demand and PSF price trend.

The concerns were partly verified after Spring Festival holiday. In most regions, polyester yarn mills resumed production as scheduled and only a few ones delayed. However, it can be seen from the below figure that the operating rate recovered slowly and labor shortage was outstanding. It is predicted to completely recover to normal level until early Mar.

PSF price kept stable for a long period. After Spring Festival holiday, polyester feedstock presented softness and orders were not placed as expected, thus PSF price was revised down for sales, which also reflected inadequate demand. The inventory of polyester yarn mills stayed low in general and many spinners in South China were even short of supply, but the orders did not come largely. As a result, overall polyester yarn market did not improve obviously despite the slight rise of price.

At present, PSF inventory will keep low and some PSF plants will keep processing previous orders until end Feb. With adequate stockpiles of polyester feedstock, PSF plants can keep their stable offers and sell products. For polyester yarn mills, they still focus on orders and PSF price trend later. Offers of polyester yarn will keep flat in short run and may fluctuate apparently when previous orders are finished.

PSF plants also need to take something into account. The operating rate before Spring Festival holiday did not declined sharply, so the inventory may accumulate gradually amid abundant stocks in polyester yarn mills. Currently, cash flow of PSF plants hovers around 700yuan/mt. Coupled with the weakness of polyester feedstock, PSF price has large downward room. If the inventory sustains increasing, PSF price will be largely affected.